Macro Story - The story beyond the noise.

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Another decent selloff in the commodity sector, though precious metals were spared today. Oil and copper were both down 250 and 150 bp respectively today on top of similar moves on Wednesday. Many soft commodities were also down on the session including DBC down 115bp.

The decline is partly fueled by the rally in the USD (DXY) which is up 150bp in the past two trading sessions alone. The result is more selling in AUD and EUR, though the EUR/USD is selling off the most, down almost 200 pips over the same timeframe.

These moves in FX are being confirmed by a long awaited, and well past due, selloff in the majority of the JPY pairs, two of which were stopped out of their multi-month uptrend today. Note the chart below as to why this is important in terms of equity markets. Read More »

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There was some very interesting moves in the commodity market today. Nanex was highlighting a number of mini flash crashes in both crude and natural gas. In one instance apparently a $250 million CL order came close to causing a crash if not for a CME circuit breaker able to kick in.

The problem with markets that are loaded with stress is when the time to exit begins, there are few on the bid side willing to take what’s for sale. As a result you can get some wild price movements. I’m not claiming to understand what happened in CL or NG intraday today. But it does highlight the difficulty of unwinding positions in a market that is likely over extended. Read More »

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As I discussed in the Monday Market Update I’m working on a complete redesign of the daily report with a more mechanical approach and more emphasis on equity trends and swing trade opportunities. Right now I’m just fine tuning a few things and working on some technical updates. I hope to launch this by Friday.

I’m not intentionally trying to slowly launch this but I also don’t want to just throw a complete change out with out at least discussing the basis for the change. I am essentially taking a look at all the posts, charts, studies, etc I regularly share and separating what I believe adds value and what is more academic in nature. The academic is important but clouds one’s judgement too much.

Further down in today’s post, there is a discussion of news and momentum and how the two need to be understood. That is an example of the balance I  want to bring and why I say my analysis will become more mechanical. The goal, bottom line, is to help you make money while reducing stress.  Read More »

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Over the coming week I will launch a completely redesigned daily report with a far more “mechanical” analysis. It will include a heavier focus on equity markets and will also include equity swing trade opportunities in addition to daily trends.

I’ve been experimenting with a new feature that allows me to more clearly define cycles within a trend. At the same time I realize a lot of traders do focus on equity. Though my personal trading has shifted to other asset classes, I do need to redirect my efforts for readers.  I also plan on removing some discussions, charts, etc which I believe highlight market risks, but do not bring enough value to justify their daily discussion.

In the interim, please bare with me while I transition this report and understand their is a method to my madness over the coming days.  Read More »

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I always feel to generic when saying the consumer is 70% of the economy but they are literally, almost to the percent, exactly 70% of total US economic output.

So if the US economy were a business and the consumer were their customer, they would be the most important customer by far. If you wanted to forecast the future, you would simply need to gauge the consumer.

We started this past week waiting on a key economic data point about this very important client, in January retail sales. Though only up 0.1% or 1.2% annualized, January was measured against a strong December at 0.5% or 6.0% annualized. Read More »

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A weekly update of market and economic indicators across various asset classes. Read More »

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I have a new format for you today. Rather than a video there is audio with a more technical discussion across asset classes and time frames. I’ll try this format for a few weeks and see how it works.

Please click on the image below to listen.

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