Good Morning. Enjoy the absence of economic data today, because the remainder of the week is packed. The highlights of the week are ISM services on Wednesday, FOMC minutes on Thursday and non-farm payroll on Friday. That’s a lot of big news facing a market that is looking very shaky. I continue to believe the [...]

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Good Morning. Some interesting economic data today in retail sales and business inventories. Inventories are a Q2 number so they have implications for GDP revisions, while retail sales are a July number. Both though, will give some insight as to the health of the consumer after four months of contraction and whether it has impacted [...]

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Good Morning. Another day of very little economic data to be released. In fact this week has been so light I have little to discuss in the Morning Brief in regards to macro-economic data. I have five skew charts for you today. They continue to show severe complacency in the market right now. In fact [...]

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Good Morning. One central bank meeting down, one more to go. Thursday pre-market, Mario Draghi and the ECB will meet and the markets will see if they can “walk the talk.” Though Draghi said he would do all he could “within the ECB mandate” markets opted to ignore the “within the mandate” component and rather [...]

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Good Morning. Well today is going to be an interesting day indeed. From another Hilsenrath rumor to a rare AAPL earning miss to the EFSF being downgraded there is a lot for the markets to consider. I won’t say “price in” because what does that truly mean and how is it quantifiable? The model issued [...]

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Good Morning. Chairman Bernanke speaks about early childhood education today at 8:45AM. I’m not making this stuff up. Fortunately it is pre-market but expect ES futures to hang on every word in hopes of QE3 being announced. How the man transitions such a policy discussion into a non-financial subject is likely something markets have not [...]

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Good Morning. Today’s post is very long so I am putting it out early to give readers a chance to review before the markets open. Over the weekend I posted four analogs to show what I am seeing in the model. After studying the 2011 analog further I realized that by stretching out the timeline [...]

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Good Morning. Today is relatively light with economic data. Though we do kick off the financial earnings with JP Morgan (JPM) before the bell. The “whale” loss will somehow, miraculously be offset by various accounting tricks. From gains associated with JPM debt trading lower (because their inherent risk is higher) to releasing provisions for loan [...]

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