Morning Brief Monday August 6, 2012

Good Morning. There is no economic data today. In fact this week is very light though Chairman Bernanke hosts an “educator roundtable” on Tuesday where he will answer questions. So something may surface there.

These markets have really mystified everyone. Surely there are some longs who will claim the advance off the May lows was foreseeable and foretelling of higher prices to come but I still do not see it. All I see in the model is a lot of stress. A market trying desperately to do a healthy pullback to relieve such stress. But instead, such opportunities are met with very strong and sharp reactions. More indicative of short covering rallies than real buying.

So we continue to wait and be patient for a true and sustainable trend to develop. I don’t like continually using that word but it’s the best I can provide right now. For me to jump on the long bandwagon when I do not see it being modeled just to “fit in with the locals” is not something I will do. Nor will I make the mistakes of the past and discuss a market decline not yet confirmed.

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