Good Morning. Wednesday was a big day for economic data and Fed speak. Well Thursday is even bigger. Chairman Bernanke is “back on the hill” giving his semi-annual economic review to congress. Though nothing new should come out of this testimony that did not come out on Wednesday.
On the data front ISM manufacturing is the biggest mover. As indicated in the GDP analysis below inventory has been the source of recent improvement in the manufacturing sector. Which sounds good but bottom line it appears the US may have built inventory the consumer simply cannot buy. If true then Q4 2011 pulled forward Q1 2012 economic growth.
In fact the data is becoming clearer in my view that recession is far closer at hand than many may believe.